What is more likely:

• 1	35.71% (40 votes) Dale Earnhardt Jr. wins a race in 2010

• 2	29.46% (33 votes) Detroit wins the Super Bowl in 2010

• 3	21.43% (24 votes) Northern Iowa wins the NCAA hoops title in 2010

• 4	13.39% (15 votes) Washington Nats win World series 2010